下一代食物冲击模型

尽管今天是司空见惯的，但气候相关的食物冲击很难预测，并且很难跟踪他们更广泛的反冲。还普遍认为，目前气候变化和社会经济发展的当前轨迹将被影响暴露和脆弱的食物系统的危险冲击和极端事件危害来调整。由农业和食品系统研究所共同主办，并由阿斯彭全球变化研究所,下一代食物冲击模型研讨会通过汇集气候、农业、卫生和营养、贸易、安全和人道主义援助专业知识，促进转型变革和基于科学的远见，以推进应对粮食安全和改善营养当前和未来挑战的下一代工具和决策支持系统，重点是理解跨多个规程、系统和规模的复杂过程之间的交互。

Discussion topics included recent changes in the global food system (e.g., changing trade networks, food stocks, diets, and human health), current and shifting probabilities of extreme climate hazards (affecting one or more agricultural regions), likely behaviors of key food system players to shocks (e.g., governments, supply chain actors, transport logistics, private companies, international agencies, civil society organizations, and individuals), and the ramifications for society (including economics, land use, migration, dietary insufficiency, food insecurity, and malnutrition). Participants explored real-time monitoring, probabilistic scenarios, and near-term forecasting of climate shocks, including climate variability and climate changes, and their effects on the food system. The workshop also highlighted ways in which this integrated, multi-disciplinary, and action-oriented research may scale up scientific advances in service to society. A major goal was to develop a framework with elements that may be used for operational response and risk assessment, as well as the testing and prioritization of intervention strategies for food shock risk reduction.

The workshop brought together researchers and stakeholders who are strategically advancing critical disciplines including modeling (CMIP/climate, AgMIP/agriculture, integrated assessment models, and food system networks), informatics, behavioral economics, health and nutrition, and risk assessment (e.g., the Sendai Framework). Such transdisciplinary focus is essential given the complex and multi-dimensional aspects of the food system challenges that shocks impose, as well as the myriad of stakeholders and decision makers that attempt to anticipate, mitigate, and respond to growing risks. Workshop participants shared knowledge frameworks and together intuited linkage or interaction points and overarching framework principles for next-generation shock modeling. This included incorporation of highly variable climate extremes, stressors and tipping points, and limitations and opportunities in our ability to make robust predictions and projections of future shock events. This was achieved by tracking the signal of shock events within processes and decision contexts across field, regional, and global scales.

更多信息可从阿斯彭全球变化研究所．